NPAFC Science Plan

NPAFC Science Plan 2011-2015

Research Theme and Five Research Topics

Over the past several decades, there have been significant variations in the marine production of Asian and North American salmon populations that are linked to climate change.  There is a strong need for new international cooperative research that provides better scientific information on the ecological mechanisms regulating production of anadromous populations, estimates climate impact on salmon populations in North Pacific marine ecosystems, and examines the extent to which salmon populations, since they return to coastal regions, can be used as indicators of conditions in North Pacific marine ecosystems.

The goal is to be able to explain and forecast the annual variation in Pacific salmon production.  To provide necessary focus to cooperative research under the 2011-2015 Science Plan, the Science Sub-committee (SSC) identified an overarching research theme, “Forecast of Pacific Salmon Production in the Ocean Ecosystems under Changing Climate,” and five research topics:

1)      Migration and Survival Mechanisms of Juvenile Salmon in the Ocean Ecosystems;

2)      Climate Impacts on Pacific Salmon Production in the Bering Sea (BASIS) and Adjacent Waters;

3)      Winter Survival of Pacific Salmon in the North Pacific Ocean Ecosystems;

4)      Biological Monitoring of Key Salmon Populations; and

5)      Development and Applications of Stock Identification Methods and Models for Management of Pacific Salmon.

Accurate forecast of returning salmon abundances is of great importance for population managements in all countries.  Precision monitoring of abundance and biomass in the ocean may be the most reliable method for predicting changes in production of anadromous populations.  Accurate stock identification methods such as genetic and otolith mark analyses are necessary to monitor stock specific ocean distributions and abundance.  Cooperative research that improves understanding of common mechanisms that regulate Pacific salmon production will increase the accuracy of forecasting.   Finally we need models to explain how Pacific salmon production will change in the ocean ecosystems affected by changing climate. 

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