North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission

Technical Report 15

Table of Contents

Patterns of Synchrony and Environmental Thresholds in the Performance of Forecast Models Used for U.S. West Coast Chinook and Coho Salmon Stocks

Authors:
William H. Satterthwaite, Kelly S. Andrews, Jennifer L. Gosselin, Correigh M. Greene, Chris J. Harvey, Mary Hunsicker, Stuart H. Munsch, and Jameal F. Samhouri

Abstract Excerpt:
Preseason abundance forecasts drive management of salmon fisheries off the U.S. West Coast, yet little is known about how environmental variability influences forecast performance. Understanding shared patterns in forecast performance can identify scenarios with heightened management risk due to shared over/under-forecasting of a large proportion of the fishery stock portfolio, and identifying drivers of this synchrony may aid in the development of improved forecasts. We examined temporal patterns, synchrony, and potential drivers in shared trends of forecast performance for 21 Chinook and 15 coho salmon stocks on the U.S. West Coast. For select Chinook salmon stocks of particularly high management importance, we tested for nonlinear and threshold relationships between forecast performance and environmental indices.

*This is the first paragraph of an extended abstract. Download the full abstract below.

DOI:
https://doi.org/10.23849/npafctr15/157.160.

Citation

Satterthwaite, W.H., K.S. Andrews, J.L. Gosselin, C.M. Greene, C.J. Harvey, M. Hunsicker, S.H. Munsch, and J.F. Samhouri.  2019.  Patterns of synchrony and environmental thresholds in the performance of forecast models used for U.S. west coast Chinook and coho salmon stocks.  N. Pac. Anadr. Fish Comm. Tech. Rep. 15: 157–160.  https://doi.org/10.23849/npafctr15/157.160.